SNOWFALL DATA TRENDS

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Attached is Snowfall Data for North Adams, MA. Official records maintained by John Hockridge, Meteorologist / owner; New England Weather Associates. The data opens with the 1974/75 Winter season (NEWA was established in 1974), and what is clearly seen on the graph overall is that average annual snowfall has indeed been increasing in North Adams since the 1992/93 Winter season (Blizzard of '93). While there have been some winters with below to well below average snowfall in North Adams post 1992/93 season, the overall trend has favored slightly above normal annual snowfall (as seen on the graph). Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

CURRENT NAO & NE 2020

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Currently, what has nature taught us this year? Looking at the light red shaded chart, credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Monthly mean-average; reveals that the mildest weather conditions in New England, temperatures above to well above normal prevailed during January through March 2020, when the NAO was consistently positive or averaged a monthly mean above 1.00 (Standard Deviation), as indicated on-the-chart (black circles). Since April 2020, the NAO has undergone a complete reversal, that has promoted below to well below normal temperatures at-times. Most notably, the consistency of the NAO since the significant pattern reversal in April, will be a very important 'wild' card during the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. What is the NAO telling us? The support is overwhelming for New England to experience above to well above normal snowfall during the 2020/21 Winter Season due to overall 'negative' trends of the NAO since April... that strongly favor a colder / stormy weather pattern. The NAO is especially supported by the current state of the Sun; exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum! Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO. (* NOTE: This is also 'consistent' with the NAO historically, as noted from my previous post on October 25, 2020.)

 A great question!: BOSTON had an all time record snowfall of 108.6" during the 2014/15 Winter Season. Average winter season snowfall in BOSTON is around 48.0"; and 2014/15 Winter Season... 60.6" above normal snowfall in BOSTON! Ironically, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) wasn't in a noted 'negative' phase during *2014/15; which is usually a very important climate driver for New England to experience above to well above normal snowfall. *2014/15 was an extreme outlier due to strong High pressure ridge over western North America. When you state global warming... this research is out to make viewers aware, IF my overall thoughts are truly realized, that the climate is largely driven by natural & cyclical factors... starting with the Sun. The Sun is currently exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum which strongly favors the NAO to be observed in it's 'negative' phase during the 2020/21 Winter Season. Based on past analogs, 2010/11 & 2000/01, when the Sun was also exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum, BOSTON had around 30.0" above normal snowfall but the hills of western and parts of northern New England had around 50.0" to 60.0" above normal snowfall. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO. (Picture of Mt. Greylock War Memorial Tower taken by me in early December 2012, on a pre-winter hike to the summit.)
 

HISTORIC NAO & NE 2020

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This picture was taken by me May 9, 2020 at Whitcomb Hill Summit, Mohawk Trail - Route 2 Florida, MA., during an amplified winter-like weather pattern known as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern prevailed for much of May 2020. The negative NAO is a high latitude block of atmospheric pressure that becomes established around southern Greenland in the North Atlantic; that blocks the jet-stream (upper-air flow) from moving straight west-to-east, sending air of polar origin into the eastern U.S. (northeastern U.S. / New England), along with increased potential of coastal storms... 'Nor'easters'. Historically, the average phase of the NAO during the month of May, is a direct correlation to the average phase of the NAO observed during the upcoming winter season. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

UNDERSTANDING OUR SUN

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Look at the 📊 (graph of the Sun) where I marked '22', Solar Cycle 22 was the MOST active in-terms of overall sunspot activity since the 1950's (* likely a longer period-of-time / cycle than dating back to the 1950's). During the peak of Solar Cycle 22, 1988 - 1992, the term Nor'easter all but became extinct in New England. Now, let's look at what actually happened during the winters from 1988 - 1992 in North Adams, during the peak of the MOST active solar cycle (22) since the *1950's.

From 1988 - 1992 (* indicated by red circle on posted snowfall chart)... there were four (4) winters in-a-row with below normal snowfall in North Adams. With the exception of 1989/90; three (3) of these winters experienced well below normal snowfall. This period is the longest duration of back-to-back winters with below to well below normal snowfall since the *1950's. * Average winter season snowfall in North Adams, MA. is 78.1". * To be clear the average of those four (4) winters (1988 - 1992) combined is 44.8" snowfall, which is the lowest 4-year average snowfall in North Adams, at-least dating back to 1974.

 CONCLUSION: MUCH unlike the highly active Sun during the peak of Solar Cycle 22 from 1988 - 1992; Solar Cycle 23, and especially the current decaying Solar Cycle 24... has trended MUCH weaker. As-a-result, both the Winters of 2010/11 & 2000/01, that were exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum, were truly realized through stronger support for sustained high latitude atmospheric blocking. This allowed for well above normal snowfall in North Adams during 2010/11 & 2000/01. We are now exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum again, and as we exit the overall very weak, decaying Solar Cycle 24... nature is perfectly aligned to repeat it's course experienced 10 & 20-years-ago, with above to well above normal snowfall in New England, during the upcoming Winter Season 2020/21. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

 

2020/21 WINTER SEASON

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To think I am posting about another upcoming winter season, despite being terribly wrong during the 2019/20 Winter Season & especially the 2015/16 Winter Season. But I am NOT God and only do weather outlooks for the New England region as an intense hobby. Besides, each winter season further humbles me, especially during times of inaccuracies, and I continue to learn. We turn the page to the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season! But what have I learned NOT to repeat the same inaccuracies? I have learned that the 'Sun' or 9-11 year sunspot cycle needs to be carefully weighted in-respect to where we currently are in-the-cycle. For example, the sunspot cycle holds most weight concerning long-range outlooks when the Sun is at-the-dead but especially exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum. The strongest signal following the solar cycle is when the Sun is exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum due to strong presentation of atmospheric high latitude blocking... like the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. The solar cycle averages out to be exactly 10.66 years. This means that the Winter Seasons of 2010/11 & 2000/01; were also exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum. The trend is very clear what happened 10-years & 20-years ago during the noted winters, following this averaged 10-year cycle. Both winters experienced snowfall well above normal in North Adams, 50"-60" above normal snowfall (average season snowfall in North Adams, MA. is 78.1"), along with slightly below normal temperatures. We reviewed 2000/01 & 2010/11... dating back to 1974, 2000/01 was the snowiest winter & 2010/11 was the third snowiest winter in North Adams. Now, the 10-year anniversary is approaching, and yes, like the noted winter seasons the Sun is indeed exiting-the-dead of a solar minimum during 2020/21! Simply stated: strongly considering the noted factors there is greater than a 50% chance of above to well above normal snowfall and seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures in New England during the upcoming 2020/21 Winter Season. Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.                                                                                      

2019/20 WINTER SEASON: DELAYED BUT NOT DENIED!

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On November 30, 2019; I posted about the upcoming 2019/20 Winter Season; and while the anticipated pull back or mild spell is more prolonged than what I was originally thinking, I did close my post on November 30th stating: *** These highly amplified November patterns historically feature a pull back during much of December, before completely becoming established around Christmas or early January. *** As of January 9, 2020 temperatures across the Northeast / New England have been averaging above to well above normal, especially since the beginning of-the-month. But MUCH unlike the recent mild absent winters of 2001/02, 2011/12, & 2015/16; the Sun is completely reverse, NOT highly active in-terms of sunspot activity on the solar disk as was 2001/02 & 2011/12, and there is NO strong El Nino influencing Pacific basin-wide Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) as was 2015/16. Both stated factors played a significant role in the complete absence of winter during the above stated years. However, the 2019/20 Winter Season is definitely delayed but NOT denied. The reason for the extended mild spell since mid-to-late December; is due to a strongly consolidated Polar Vortex (PV) over high northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The strong Polar Vortex (PV) keeps bonafide arctic air up over northern Canada / Alaska; where the core of winter has been truly experienced. As-a-result, mid-latitudes experience an enhanced west-to-east flow of the jet-stream with a mild Pacific influenced air mass and transient or short-lived shots of cold. Many winter seasons experienced this pattern building-up to a complete longwave weather pattern change that resulted in a highly memorable second half-of-winter. The winters that are very similar to this year in-respect to the Sun & overall longwave global weather pattern (MUCH unlike the complete absent winters stated above) are 2002/03, 2006/07, 2009/10, & 2014/15 - ALL noted winters experienced above to well above normal temperatures during mid-to-late December through early January before a complete longwave pattern CHANGE; that brought winter in with-a-punch in late January, but especially February & March!
Forecaster: Daniel Viens, establishing author of New England NAO.

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