 |
| NASA Solar Activity as of November 19, 2013 |
Solar Activity, while mentioned by few professionals concerning
Winter Outlooks... is
one-of-the most important factors shaping this upcoming Winter season, it is what I call the foundation. The
above image of the
solar disk from NASA on November 19, 2013, shows
4-active sunspot regions in-general
(circled-in-black) on the sun. The
sunspot region toward the
center of the solar disk,
is most active...
however all circled sunspot regions have-to-be-watched. Of note, during a
Solar Minimum, the solar disk would be virtually free of sunspot activity... as we head toward
2016, the above image will be
less-of-a-factor.
Sunspots have a direct relation to
High Latitude Blocking episodes, due to the entrapment of heat through
UV Rays... promoting increased
ozone formation. The
more active the sun, the
more of a driver it is... influencing the Earth's
stratosphere (poleward), where pronounced
cooling occurs. Therefore, the orientation of the jet-stream keeps the
heart of the
Polar Vortex (PV) at the North Pole...
encouraging an overall
progressive pattern
(with short-lived shots of cold air) in middle latitudes with a highly
Positive Phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As a result, the weather pattern experienced in middle latitudes, is an overall milder, dryer pattern... which is a signature of increased solar activity, especially during a
Solar Maximum.
 |
| AO GEFS Index Forecast - November 19, 2013 |
Looking at the
Arctic Oscillation (AO) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) forecast,
shows true signs of solar influence. Within the area
circled-in-red, the
AO Index has been averaging around +3.0
Standard Deviation (SD) above normal-mean... from extreme late October to mid-November. During this time period there was also a pronounced
resurgence in sunspot activity, which is clearly observed with this
classic +AO signature.
 |
| SWPC Solar Cycle Progression as of November 4, 2013 |
Viewers of this site understood that a
Solar Maximum was experienced during
2011/12 & 2001/02... following the 9-11 year
Schwabe Cycle, which averages to be exactly every
10.66 years that a solar maximum is observed.
However, following this cycle also
hints at a resurgence of solar activity about 2 years after the actual observed maximum... this occurred in
2003/04 (which highly influenced that Winter season) now were 2 years after the maximum again, with another resurgence in sunspot activity. In posts I published during the
2012/13 Winter Season, I wrote about a return to the
classic old-fashioned New England Winter's (as experienced throughout most of the 1960's & 70's) from
2016 through 2020. I stated this with a strong understanding that this period will be the start of a
Solar Minimum (which will strongly encourage
High Latitude Blocking episodes due to a non-active solar influence), following the
Schwabe Cycle. But, there is also another important factor to strongly consider...
on
January 4, 2008 we entered
Solar Cycle 24. While
Solar Cycle 23 was highly active in-terms of sunspot activity, especially before the observed minimum in
2006 (as seen on the SWPC image above),
Solar Cycle 24 has paled in-comparison. This is a highly important factor, that will also have
a significant influence over the next decade+...
considering that the actual solar cycle is about 22 years long.
My thoughts for the 2013/14 Winter Season: Due to a resurgence in solar activity,
it's critical in how active the sun remains. However, I will clearly state that seeing the actual
Solar Maximum was observed in
2011/12...
I certainly believe that it won't be as mild as that Winter. In fact, if you follow the
Schwabe Cycle closely... this resurgence in active sunspots should be short-lived. Taking this strongly into consideration, I feel the potential is strong for established
High Latitude Blocking episodes from January through March. December is critical, but will more than likely be a
period of transition... as the
current solar activity will be less of a factor on the overall
500-millibar Height Pattern.
Now that I presented the foundation, I am going to
link to
NY NJ PA Weather for the finer details on the
Winter Forecast for 2013/2014...
which is the best seasonal outlook I have ever read.
New England NAO will continue to-be-updated through the Winter season.
